August 13th, 2025

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As the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska looms, the question arises of whether it could mark the end of Russia’s decade-long war against Ukraine. But how can a war end when one of the parties hasn’t been invited to the negotiating table, even though it holds its own militarily on the battlefield?

The White House is already lowering expectations, portraying the summit as a “listening exercise” for Trump in part based on the absence of the party of the second part, even though it controlled the guest list.

Yet, after announcing an August 8th deadline for a ceasefire on penalty of tougher sanctions against Russia, then shifting to an Alaska bilateral, Donald Trump declared with characteristic, nonsensical bravado on Monday that he would know “at the end of that meeting, probably in the first two minutes” whether a deal can be struck, which implies a breakthrough is possible. Or impossible.

The uncertainty, however, isn’t about whether Putin is willing to compromise—he isn’t— but about whether Trump would accept Russia’s maximalist demands and try to impose them on Ukraine (his second attempt at it) or whether he will recognize Putin’s intransigence and maintain, or even increase, American support for Ukraine.