March 25th, 2025

Appearing below are excerpts from an interview with Oleksiy Kandyuk of the European Research Group of Support for Ukrainian Membership (ERGOSUM). To read the full interview, click here.

How has the war in Ukraine reshaped the EU’s approach to enlargement, and what are the implications for Ukraine’s accession process?

“I think it is clear that in these three years, the EU has taken the challenge of the war seriously. At the level of the EU institutions, there has been a quick change of gears from the previous general lack of enthusiasm about enlargement. We have seen now the supranational institutions have understood that there is a need for geopolitical enlargement right now.

There’s a need to do everything possible to make sure that Ukraine and Moldova and possibly Georgia, which is under enormous pressure right now from a Russia-aligned government, can proceed. And that also involves rethinking, of course, about the Western Balkans and how to facilitate their accession. The supranational EU institutions have done a good job retooling.”

What internal reforms does the EU itself need to implement in order to integrate new member states effectively and avoid institutional deadlock?

“One of the main problems I think will be integrating Ukraine economically, because it is such a big country, especially in the area of agriculture, it’s going to be difficult.

Internal reforms in the EU will be needed to figure out how exactly to negotiate among the member states. Reform of the agricultural subsidies program, because Ukraine has an agriculture that is based on large players, industrial agriculture, as opposed to the small farms that exist in other European countries. Now, obviously, agriculture was an issue that kept coming up with every enlargement. And at every step, it was described as potentially a very problematic issue.

This was also discussed in the case of Poland. Eventually reform happened and a way forward was figured out.

That work will need to be done in the Ukrainian case as well. In terms of broader internal reforms, one thing to think about is, of course, a topic that comes up in European Union studies a lot – the extension of qualified majority voting versus unanimity. And this is something that will have to come up again when it comes to the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) and enlargement.

But I think it’s not clear at this stage in what direction that debate would go. One of the challenges to enlargement right now is Hungary which is trying to put the brakes on a lot of these processes. Thus far, Hungary has been addressed in an ad hoc manner, primarily through peer pressure and discreet diplomatic efforts. These measures have effectively signaled that Hungary will not be able to obstruct the process indefinitely and will ultimately have to step aside, allowing it to move forward.”

What do you see as the most likely 3 or 4 scenarios for Ukraine’s integration into the EU over the next decade?

“I think it is possible that Ukraine will be a member of the EU in the next decade. I think the way in which the process is moving along is quite promising and that speaks to a shorter integration timeline.

The really big “elephant in the room” of such discussion will be in what territory Ukraine would be able to join the EU. It is much harder to have a realistic assessment because it depends on the US. It depends on how long Russia can maintain its war machine.

I would not dare a prediction there. I think in some territory, Ukraine will be a member of the EU sooner rather than later. I think this scenario is more likely than a scenario of stalled integration similar to Turkey or to Serbia.

I think that is less likely because there are both – the impetus on the part of the Ukrainian government, whichever government it really is, whether it is this one or another, the impetus is strong because the consensus that European integration is desirable for Ukraine is very wide. I do not see it breaking.

I think that will be the guarantee, the recipe for success, the strong and consistent push from Ukraine and its society. On the EU part, if the security issues are manageable, I think the EU also has an interest in integrating Ukraine in order to bring stability to the entire region. I think it is more likely than not that in some territory Ukraine will be an EU member in the next decade.”